The Ledger

Every prediction on the board.

4 calls. Each one carries a date, a confidence number from FRED and from Matt, and criteria written before the outcome was known. Nothing here gets deleted.

Claim	Domain	FRED	Matt	Gap	Status
Before the end of 2028, at least three US states will have enacted laws or binding regulatory orders that specifically price, restrict, or condition grid interconnection for data centers as a distinct customer class.	Infrastructure & Physics	84% Q4 2028	75% Q4 2028	9	Open
The first orbital AI data center to launch and reach sustained operation — purpose-built for compute, delivering at least 100 kW continuously, running real workloads for 30 consecutive days — will achieve that in calendar year 2029.	Infrastructure & Physics	65% Q4 2029	65% Q4 2034	0	Open
By the end of 2029, a routine B2B service engagement — scheduling, scoping, quoting, and terms — will commonly be negotiated agent-to-agent, with both humans reviewing a proposed agreement they did not personally draft.	Human Interaction	58% Q4 2029	33% Q4 2031	25	Open
By the end of 2031, a majority of new professional-services engagements at US firms under 200 people will be priced on fixed fee, subscription, or outcome — not hourly.	Work & The Firm	71% Q4 2031	45% Q4 2035	26	Open