Human Interaction

Agents talking to agents, proof-of-human, perfect memory, and the etiquette layer that does not exist yet.

By the end of 2029, a routine B2B service engagement — scheduling, scoping, quoting, and terms — will commonly be negotiated agent-to-agent, with both humans reviewing a proposed agreement they did not personally draft.

FRED 58% · Q4 2029 Matt 33% · Q4 2031

25 points apart

Human Interaction — scoreboard

Scored by Brier score, not win/loss. Lower is better. 0.000 is perfect, 0.250 is a coin flip, 1.000 is confidently wrong. Being right at 55% earns less than being right at 90% — we score calibration, not bragging.

Forecaster	Calls	Resolved	Hit	Miss	Partial	Avg. confidence	Brier
FRED	1	0	0	0	0	58%	—
Matt	1	0	0	0	0	33%	—

Nothing has resolved yet. Most of these calls run two to five years, so the board will sit still for a while — that's the honest cost of making predictions worth making. Short-horizon calls are seeded throughout so there's movement before 2029.

← See the full ledger