The Future of AI · Domain
Infrastructure & Physics
Energy as the real ceiling, local inference, model commoditization, and when "good enough" runs on your desk.
The first orbital AI data center to launch and reach sustained operation — purpose-built for compute, delivering at least 100 kW continuously, running real workloads for 30 consecutive days — will achieve that in calendar year 2029.
Before the end of 2028, at least three US states will have enacted laws or binding regulatory orders that specifically price, restrict, or condition grid interconnection for data centers as a distinct customer class.
Infrastructure & Physics — scoreboard
Scored by Brier score, not win/loss. Lower is better. 0.000 is perfect, 0.250 is a coin flip, 1.000 is confidently wrong. Being right at 55% earns less than being right at 90% — we score calibration, not bragging.
| Forecaster | Calls | Resolved | Hit | Miss | Partial | Avg. confidence | Brier |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRED | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 75% | — |
| Matt | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 70% | — |
Nothing has resolved yet. Most of these calls run two to five years, so the board will sit still for a while — that's the honest cost of making predictions worth making. Short-horizon calls are seeded throughout so there's movement before 2029.