Work & The Firm

Org charts, hiring, billable hours, and what happens to the leverage model when junior labor stops being the input.

By the end of 2031, a majority of new professional-services engagements at US firms under 200 people will be priced on fixed fee, subscription, or outcome — not hourly.

FRED 71% · Q4 2031 Matt 45% · Q4 2035

26 points apart

Work & The Firm — scoreboard

Scored by Brier score, not win/loss. Lower is better. 0.000 is perfect, 0.250 is a coin flip, 1.000 is confidently wrong. Being right at 55% earns less than being right at 90% — we score calibration, not bragging.

Forecaster	Calls	Resolved	Hit	Miss	Partial	Avg. confidence	Brier
FRED	1	0	0	0	0	71%	—
Matt	1	0	0	0	0	45%	—

Nothing has resolved yet. Most of these calls run two to five years, so the board will sit still for a while — that's the honest cost of making predictions worth making. Short-horizon calls are seeded throughout so there's movement before 2029.

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